California Voices

(originally published at Fox & Hounds Daily)
It's late September, and Californians across the political spectrum, from the labor left to the good government center to the Tea Party right, are still cooking up ideas for initiatives for the November 2012 ballot.

Here's some good, if unsolicited advice: they should knock it off. Because when it comes to 2012, it's already too late.

How's that? If you want to change the state with a big reform push, a year before the election is not nearly enough time to be successful. Yes, the election calendar seems to permit success. But the realities of reaching and convincing people in a state this big - particularly of anything bold enough to move the needle - mean that a year is a blip on the time screen.

A big reform push requires literally years of work, preparation, deliberation and convincing. Those who made the biggest impact in California politics worked for years before having success on the ballot.

The 1911 special election that established the initiative, referendum and recall - as well as women's suffrage, public utilities, workers comp, and a new railroad commission - was the culmination of more than a decade of work across the state to build support for direct democracy. And the campaigning for putting initiative and referendum in the statewide constitution was a three-year campaign that had dominated the conversation over the 1908 and 1910 election cycles.

And Prop 13, passed in 1978, was the culmination of 13 year (13 years) of debate, legislation, and failed initiatives to do something to reduce property taxes. Prop 13 started with scandals involving tax assessors that first surfaced in the mid 1960s.

Nevertheless, the mentality that prevails in California is that the calendar for the next election should determine how fast you could move. That calendar, however, is not a guide. It's a siren song. And many good ideas have been dashed on the rocks because they rushed.

A better approach is to pursue and develop your idea, seeking the best advice inside and outside California. Take as much time as you need and meet with anyone, even potential opponents, who has an interest in the subject. Seek advice. Be open. And work to convince people, from elites to media to the public.And when - probably after several years - you have broad and authentic support for your idea, you then might take a glimpse at the election calendar.